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Royal Bank of Canada: The European Central Bank may move towards negative real interest rate. Royal Bank of Canada BlueBay Asset Management said that the European Central Bank may cut the interest rate below 2% next year, which the agency estimated to be a short-term neutral interest rate. Kaspar Hense, senior portfolio manager of the institution, said in a report that the core inflation rate is expected to be around 2.5% in the first half of 2025, which means that the real interest rate will be negative. He said that under the influence of unfavorable factors such as trade, continuous competitive pressure from other countries and financial problems, this should play a moderate supporting role in the economy.Analysis: Lagarde's speech increased the market's bet to cut interest rates by 50 basis points. In December, the European Central Bank lowered its economic forecast and inflation forecast. At the press conference, European Central Bank President Lagarde paid attention to the downside risks of economic growth, especially mentioning that trade friction may put pressure on economic growth, and also mentioned that they discussed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points. Therefore, the atmosphere of the whole meeting is biased towards doves. The market then increased its bet on a 50 basis point rate cut after January. Although the possibility of a sharp interest rate cut in January is stable at 30%, the possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in March has increased from 30% before the meeting to 40%, and the possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in April has increased from 0% to 5%.European Central Bank President Lagarde: Increased global trade friction may weaken economic growth. European Central Bank President Lagarde: Increased global trade friction may weaken economic growth, and the growth prospects are facing downside risks. The downside risks of inflation include low market confidence, geopolitical pressure and low investment. The intensification of trade friction will make the inflation prospect more uncertain.

Central Economic Work Conference: In view of the bottleneck of industrial transformation and upgrading, the Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. The meeting proposed that we should unswervingly deepen reform and open wider to the outside world in view of the deep-seated obstacles and external challenges that restrict development; In view of the bottleneck restriction of industrial transformation and upgrading, promote the smooth continuous transformation of old and new kinetic energy; Strengthen policy support and optimize supervision services in response to concerns and demands in business operations; In view of the hidden risks in key areas, we will continue to vigorously promote risk disposal. We must vigorously improve the efficiency of implementation, fully mobilize the enthusiasm, initiative and creativity of grassroots units, continuously optimize the business environment, and better unite the joint efforts to promote high-quality development. (Xinhua News Agency)Jili Liaoyuan reported a suspected gas explosion in a residential area: 13 people were hospitalized, including 2 seriously injured. Liaoyuan City Emergency Management Bureau reported that at 18: 17 pm on December 12, the municipal fire rescue detachment received an alarm, and a suspected gas explosion occurred in a residential area in Liaoyuan City. At present, the open flame has been extinguished, and 13 people were hospitalized, including 2 seriously injured. The cause of the accident is under investigation.European Central Bank President Lagarde: The European Central Bank did not discuss neutral interest rates this week. Many things will become clear in the next few months, not in the next few weeks.

Spot gold hit $2,700 per ounce, down 0.65% in the day. COMEX gold futures fell more than 1.00% in the day and are now quoted at $2,729.00 per ounce.European Central Bank President Lagarde: Eurozone banks remain resilient.European Central Bank President Lagarde: Since July 2023, the flexibility of the Emergency Anti-epidemic Bond Purchase Program (PEPP) has not been used, and the transmission protection tool (TPI) has not been discussed.